🇺🇸 United States market recap
Risk-on2026-06-28😱 Goldman’s Risk Appetite is at 99th percentile; fear stems from thin equity risk premium and stretched valuations.
The S&P 500 hit new record highs after nine straight weekly gains, fueled by strong earnings and an AI-driven boom in tech, energy, and materials. Inflation remains elevated at 3.8%, diminishing Fed rate-cut hopes and shifting markets toward debating a potential hike. While the bull market is powerful, leadership is narrow, valuations are stretched, and consumer sentiment is low outside equity holders.
Big news
📰 S&P 500 reaches new all-time high after nine consecutive weekly gains, up 11.3% YTD
Confirms strong bull market; tech and energy lead gains, boosting manufacturing and construction sectors.
📰 75% of S&P companies beat Q1 earnings; CPU and memory chip makers show eye-popping growth
Earnings drive rally; semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks see premium valuations.
📰 Brent crude falls nearly 20% in May amid U.S.-Iran ceasefire optimism, though Strait of Hormuz remains closed
Oil price collapse lowers energy costs; boosts consumer discretionary but pressures energy sector margins.
📰 Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair; markets shift from pricing cuts to debating a potential rate hike
Higher-for-longer rates pressure bond yields and equity valuations; tech and real estate face headwinds.
📰 AI capex surge drives 25% projected S&P 500 earnings growth for 2026, up from 16% at start of year
AI spending lifts tech, materials, and energy sectors; widens earnings gap between leaders and laggards.
📰 Consumer sentiment at historical lows outside stock market; real wage growth negative, savings weak
Weak consumer demand threatens retail and discretionary sectors; limits broad market participation.
Sector stance
AI capex boom; standout: CPUs, memory chips, cloud infrastructure.
Strong earnings, rising demand; oil price drop may pressure margins.
AI-driven construction and manufacturing demand.
AI infrastructure and digital ad growth; top performer May.
Moderate growth; AI capex supports equipment makers.
Earnings estimates lowered; defensive but lagging.
Weak consumer sentiment, negative real wages.
Lower earnings estimates; inflation pressures margins.
Higher rates boost net interest income; loan demand uncertain.
Higher-for-longer rates pressure valuations and demand.
Defensive but yield-competitive with bonds; limited upside.
Outlook
Earnings remain the strongest in years, concentrated in AI and energy, supporting a risk-on tilt. However, stretched valuations, thin equity risk premium, and a new Fed chair may limit upside. Investors should overweight U.S. equities, underweight core fixed income, and focus on AI-driven tech and energy leaders.