🇦🇺 Australia market recap
Risk-on2026-07-18😱 Fear is low; greed dominates as RBA August rate cut bets and US all-time highs fuel aggressive buying.
The ASX 200 is surging toward a historic all-time high near 8,800, driven by a broad-based rally in Materials and Financials as US equities hit fresh peaks and RBA rate-cut expectations intensify 📈🇦🇺🚀. Investor sentiment is strongly risk-on, with heavyweight miners like BHP and Rio Tinto leading gains alongside CSL and major banks. The market is buoyed by easing Middle East geopolitical tensions and bullish commodity prices, particularly copper and gold.
Big news
📰 ASX 200 crosses 8,700 for first time, eyeing historic 8,800 level with +1.50% intraday gain
Materials and Financials lead broad rally; record highs trigger momentum buying across all sectors.
📰 RBA rate cut now firmly expected in August as US unemployment data points to weaker global growth
Bullish for Financials and Real Estate; lowers discount rates boosting equity valuations across ASX.
📰 US President Trump signals willingness to end military campaign against Iran without reopening Strait of Hormuz
Eases Middle East conflict fears; oil prices stabilize, reducing risk-off pressure on global equities.
📰 Copper prices hit 4.5-month highs and China steel rebar futures surge to 3.5-year peaks
Supercharges Materials sector; BHP and Rio Tinto gain 3%+ as commodity demand outlook strengthens.
📰 CSL jumps 3.5% and Westpac rises 2% as Healthcare and Financials outperform in broad rally
Healthcare rebounds from 12-month underperformance; banks benefit from rate-cut expectations and capital stability.
📰 S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh all-time highs overnight, lifting ASX futures +0.37% pre-market
Global risk-on sentiment spills into Australia; Tech, Industrials, and Staples lead US gains, supporting ASX.
Sector stance
Copper/steel surge; BHP (+3.1%), Rio (+2.0%) lead. Top pick for commodity-driven alpha.
Rate-cut bets boost banks; Westpac (+2.0%). APRA capital rules under review but sentiment strong.
CSL (+3.5%) rebounds after 12-month slump. Defensive appeal amid growth rotation.
Oil stabilizes post-Iran tension fade. No major catalysts; hold for yield, not growth.
US Industrials (+0.87%) lift sentiment. Multiplex acquisition by Obayashi ($650M) signals M&A momentum.
Retailers stagnant; discretionary trusts tax policy reversed. Wait for consumer data clarity.
Defensive but low growth. US Staples (+0.87%) offer modest support; hold for stability.
US chip stocks tumbled after rally; ASX Tech weighed. Wait for valuation reset.
Rate-cut hopes boost REITs. US Real Estate (-0.16%) lagged, but local outlook improving.
No major catalysts. Hold for yield; limited upside without ad/revenue growth data.
Stable but low growth. Defensive in volatility; no immediate upside drivers.
Outlook
The ASX is poised to test 8,800 as RBA rate-cut expectations and global risk-on momentum converge. Investors should overweight Materials and Financials while trimming Tech exposure until US chip volatility resolves. Action: Buy BHP, CSL, and Westpac on strength; hold Real Estate for rate-sensitive gains.